The Grossman Theory was first hypothesized prior to the coin flip of the 2007 Super Bowl. The Indianapolis Colts were led by a young quarterback by the name of Peyton Manning. Manning was the first pick of the NFL draft nine years earlier, the son of a former NFL star, and one of the faces of the league.

The Chicago Bears’ starting quarterback was Rex Grossman, a no-named backup quarterback with a handful of starts, a lousy completion percentage, and average at best.

I thought to myself, in a world in which only names like Staubach, Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman have hoisted the Championship trophy – how can the name Rex Grossman possibly be added to that list?

The answer was – it couldn’t.

Peyton Manning would go on to win the game while finishing his 18-year career with two Super Bowls, five MVPs, and fourteen Pro-Bowl selections.

Rex Grossman would be replaced as the starter the following season by Kyle Orton and never heard from again.

Eighteen years later, that theory was expanded upon, developed, and eventually proven true by science using a mathematical equation that I am calling – The Pythagrossmean Theorem.

The equation, Y = X-r (h)/1.25f +10d looks complicated. But like Einstein or Newton, it easily explains why this year’s NFL Playoffs have progressed as math and science knew it would.

I’ll explain.

The Y component simply represents the Super Bowl winning team. And the equation only works after the playoff teams have been decided. Math and science can explain a lot of life’s mysteries, but no one can predict Bo Nix leading the Broncos to the playoffs, Baker Mayfield balling out, or the Vikings winning 14 games with Sam Darnold.

X represents the eventual Super Bowl winning quarterback. The John Elway’s, Pat Mahomes’, and Tom Brady’s of the world. Destine to lead their teams to the championship not just by fate, but by math and science.

But it’s more complex than that.

X-r. The small r stands for rookie. In the history of Super Bowls, a rookie has never led his team to a championship. Ben Roethlisberger came close when he won the title as a 23-year-old, but it was his second year. Russell Wilson, Kurt Warner, Joe Namath, and Brady came close as well.

In fact, no rookie has ever started a game in the Super Bowl.

That means that Jayden Daniels looks to be in trouble next week. And that Bo Nix – never stood a chance.

X-r(h). The little (h) is for the Hall of Fame. With very few exceptions, the winning quarterbacks that have played in the Super Bowl are either in the Hall of Fame or look to be when their careers are over. Some are obvious, like Brady, Mahomes, and Roethlisberger. Some may take a bit, like Wilson, Matt Stafford, and Joe Flacco. And others are still too young to judge.

Don’t you see. Sam Darnold was never going to lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl victory. Baker Mayfield wasn’t going to magically go on a run. The equation has been spot on since day one. Kirk Cousins, Gino Smith, Daniel Jones, and Ryan Tannehill were never winning a title.

But what about Nick Foles. The journeyman, backup Philadelphia Eagles quarterback that took over for the injured Carson Wentz in 2013 and led the team all the way to the title.

Credit via AP News

That’s where the equation gets interesting. Foles was an obvious outlier. A deviation from the data set.

That is why the (f) in the equation stands for Foles. Dividing the numerator by (f) removes the Foles and calculates the IQR (interquartile range) in the process. It’s all very advanced stuff, math you probably didn’t take in high school or college, so don’t worry about it.

The 1.25f. Well, if 1f represents Nick Foles, .25f represents Joe Flacco, just in case I’m wrong about him eventually making it into the Hall of Fame.

1.25f + 10d. Using (f) to eliminate the Nick Foles obstruction was genius, but it took a team of MIT graduates and a few Cal Tech interns to help solve the Dilfer Dilemma.

Credit via Baltimore Breakdown

Trent Dilfer won a Super Bowl quarterbacking the 2000 Baltimore Ravens. By all accounts, Dilfer is the worst quarterback to ever win a title. At first, our team just accepted that the Dilfer Dilemma (DD) would continue on as one of earth’s unsolved mysteries. Like the Origin of Life, or the hiring of Josh McDaniels.

The answer was simple. Defense (d) wins Championships, but the only way that Trent Dilfer wins a championship is if the defense is not just great, but historically great. Like top ten. Or as us mathematicians say +10d.

10d, meaning top ten historic defenses, helps explain how Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, and Jeff Hostetler beat the odds, and won titles. It may even explain Russell Wilson.

The Pythagrossmean Theorem. Y = X-r (h)/1.25f +10d.

That leaves us with four teams fighting for, not the W, but the Y. The math says that Philadelphia will keep Jayden Daniels from advancing any further, which means Jalen Hurts is the X.

Is Hurts a potential Hall of Fame quarterback? Well, if he wins, that will be his second Super Bowl appearance, he’ll have a Super Bowl trophy, three Pro-Bowl selections, a second place MVP vote, all before the age of 27.

Credit via Wikipedia

If Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills can take out the Kansas City Chiefs and advance to win it all, his path to the Hall of Fame will include a Super Bowl ring, a probable MVP award this season, and four Pro-Bowls.

As for Pat Mahomes. One more title will give him four titles, including a three-peat, all before the age of 30.

Y=X-r(h)/1.25f+10d.

The equation helps explain the Sam Darnold’s of the world, just as it explained Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Delhomme, and Rex Grossman in year’s past.

As for Bo Nix. Let’s just hope the Broncos keep winning – and that he’s part of the equation.

Credit via Yahoo Sports

Images via vecteezy, Wikipedia, baltimorebreakdown, apnews, yahoosports.

Alan Tapley The Athletic Supporter

Alan Tapley is an educator, author, and blogger who has lived just outside of Boulder for the last twenty years.  His published work includes two novels, two children’s books, a series of cartoons in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, and multiple sports related articles. His love for family and the state of Colorado is only matched by one thing, his passion for sports.  The first baseball game he ever attended was at Wrigley Field, before there were lights.  At the final Bronco game at the old Mile High, he allegedly cut out a piece of his seat in the South stands.  But regardless of being here for the Avalanche’s last Stanley Cup, the Rockies only World Series appearance, and all the Broncos’ Super Bowl Victories, his wife never fails to remind him that he wasn’t at the University of Colorado in 1990, like she was.  The year the Buffs football team won the National Championship