According to MGMBet, the Denver Broncos win total has been set at 9.5 for the 2026 NFL season.

On the surface, the number seems a little low for a team that went 14-3 last season and would have made the Super Bowl if Bo Nix hadn’t been nixed for the backward-throwing backup, Jarret Stidham.

But after just squeaking by the New York Jets (13-11), New York Giants (33-32), Washington Commanders (27-26 in OT), and others, Vegas is betting that a tough schedule and a quarterback coming off a fractured right ankle have 9.5 wins priced accordingly.

I’ll take the over.

While the schedule is difficult, the Broncos still play the Arizona Cardinals, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Carolina Panthers, and Las Vegas Raiders twice. I’ll take my chances with Sean Payton and Super Bowl aspirations and assume the team can go 10-7 at worst.

But that’s not my favorite bet.

New England Patriots (10.5) – Under
At Seattle, at Chicago, at Jacksonville, at Kansas City, Green Bay, Denver, Detroit, and Buffalo twice?

Drake Maye be wishing he had last year’s schedule.

Kansas City Chiefs (10.5) – Under
The Chiefs went 6-11 last season, Pat Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL and LCL, and the schedule includes Seattle, Buffalo, Los Angeles Rams, New England, San Francisco, and the AFC West.

Credit via Bleacher Report

Mahomes and Travis Kelce went from hunk status to unc status faster than a dropped ball on a deep route by Xavier Worthy.

New Orleans Saints (7.5) – Under
Sure, the Saints have a shot versus the Browns, Giants, and Cardinals, but do you really see seven wins?

You know things are bad when nobody can name the starting quarterback for the Saints (Tyler Shough), and if they do, they still pronounce it wrong.

Credit via NFL.com

San Francisco 49ers (10.5) – Under
I know that the 49ers went 12-5 last season, but the team can only afford 6 losses to cover the over. Playing Seattle and the Los Angeles Rams twice a year makes that next to impossible.

Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and the rest of the team are all injury-prone. Hard to see that improving with Kyle Shanahan behind the wheel. (Sorry Kyle, I had to do it.)

Arizona Cardinals (3.5) – Over
The Cardinals aren’t very good but Jacoby Brissett, Trey McBride, and Jeremiyah Love are too good not to win four games.

I believe it was John Lennon that said, all you need is love…. and a schedule that includes the Giants, Jets, Saints, and Raiders.

Minnesota Vikings (8.5) – Over
The Vikings schedule includes the Dolphins, Saints, Colts, Falcons, Panthers, and Jets. It may be hard for JJ McCarthy to look up to the 5’9 Kyler Murray, but remember, Minnesota was 14-3 before JJ took over.

Credit via Indie Wire

I’m thinking Murray Tyler Moore is going to turn the world on with his smile. Or at least cover.

Miami Dolphins (4.5) – Under
Besides a game with the Raiders and two with the Jets, it’s hard to see five wins to cover. Miami has a new coach, no receivers, an injury-prone running back, and Malik Willis at quarterback.

Credit via PictureQuotes.com

What you talkin’ ‘bout, Willis?

Probably Arch Manning as the first pick in next year’s draft.

Los Angeles Rams (11.5) – Over
It’s difficult to bet the over on a team that plays the Seahawks and the 49ers twice a season, but the Rams are loaded.

Matt Stafford, Puka Nucua, Devonte Adams, Trent McDuffie, Myles Garrett, and possibly Aaron Donald?

The team has more stars than a Christopher Nolan movie.

Tennessee Titans (6.5) – Under
The Titans play the Jets, Giants, and Browns twice. But I’m having a difficult time finding seven wins to cover.

Remember the Titans.

I sure do, and they suck.

Cleveland Browns (5.5) – Over
With games against Tennessee, NY Jets, Saints, and Giants, I think the Browns could win a few more divisional games at home and possibly win six to cover.

Although I hear that Deshaun Watson is listed as the co-starter on the quarterback depth chart.

Hey Coach, you Shedeur you know what you’re doing?

Cincinnati Bengals (9.5) – Over
I’m seeing ten wins for this team as their schedule includes Miami, Atlanta, Tennessee, New Orleans, and Cleveland twice, to name a few.

But when you spend all your team salary on Joe Burrows, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Dexter Lawrence, you’re kind of stuck.

Unless LeBron is joining the team on the Veteran Minimum to play tight end.

And finally, bet on the Washington Commanders to cover the over at 7.5 wins.

With games against Arizona, Atlanta, Indy, Tennessee, and the New York Giants (twice), I really like Jayden Daniels.

But if Marcos Mariota has to play due to injuries, put my money on Jack Daniels instead.

Images via Yahoo sports, NFL.com, Indie Wire, PictureQuotes.com, Bleacher Report

Alan Tapley Colorado Sports & Culture Writer

Alan Tapley is an educator, author, and blogger who has lived just outside of Boulder for the last twenty years. His published work includes two novels, two children’s books, a series of cartoons in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, and multiple sports related articles. His love for family and the state of Colorado is only matched by one thing, his passion for sports.  The first baseball game he ever attended was at Wrigley Field, before there were lights.  At the final Bronco game at the old Mile High, he allegedly cut out a piece of his seat in the South stands.  But regardless of being here for the Avalanche’s last Stanley Cup, the Rockies only World Series appearance, and all the Broncos’ Super Bowl Victories, his wife never fails to remind him that he wasn’t at the University of Colorado in 1990, like she was.  The year the Buffs football team won the National Championship