To say that the Kansas City Chiefs are the odds-on favorite to repeat as Super Bowl Champions would be an understatement.  With a record of 14-1, home field throughout the playoffs, and quarterback Pat Mahomes behind center, Las Vegas sees them as a +170 to win it all again.

The +170 represents a return of $170 if you were to bet $100, or the equivalent of 1.7 to 1 odds.

But if you were paying attention over the past few weeks you may have seen Mahomes look rather pedestrian in throwing three picks against the Dolphins in week 14, KC barely surviving a close one versus the Saints in week 15, and the team needing a Younghoe Koo missed field goal to avoid overtime against the Falcons in week 16.

Las Vegas knows their odds, but with only one week left before the march to Super Bowl LV in Tampa Bay, here’s a look at the probable teams, the odds, and the value places to cash in.

Kansas City Chiefs (+170) – The only thing not to like about the Chiefs winning the Super Bowl is the payout.  With Pittsburgh struggling, Tennessee coming off a blowout loss to the Packers, and Baltimore not officially in the playoffs yet, the Buffalo Bills look to be KC’s only obstacle towards making it back to the Super Bowl.  The Chiefs may not win the whole thing, but the path to making it back makes them the betting favorite.  But keep in mind that in the 54-year history of the Super Bowl, only 7 have won back-to-back Championships.  The last being the Patriots in 2003-04.

Green Bay Packers (+550) – Aaron Rodgers and the Packers won’t have an easy road ahead of them as they battle against New Orleans, Seattle, and others to get to the title game.  But if Green Bay (12-3) can take care of business against the Bears in their last regular-season game, all their playoff games will be at Lambeau Field, in freezing cold conditions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1200) – Las Vegas lists New Orleans, Buffalo, and Seattle as heavier favorites than the Bucs.  But Tampa Bay and

Tom Brady have been rolling lately winning three-in-a-row, including last week’s 47-7 drubbing over the Lions.  Considering Brady’s Super Bowl record, and the fact that the Super Bowl is in Tampa Bay this season, this will be a popular value bet for many.

Seattle Seahawks (+1000) – You have to love Russell Wilson in a big game scenario, and you have to love the way the Seahawks defense played last week against the Rams.  The question is whether both will show up throughout the playoffs.  If running back Chris Carson stays healthy, Seattle is a nice value here.

New Orleans Saints (+700) – Alvin Kamara looked like a difference-maker rushing for six touchdowns last week, but unless you have a voodoo doll this could be a risky bet.  Drew Brees is not quite healthy, and wide receiver Michael Thomas has been questionable all season.  Unless the Saints are fortunate to grab home-field advantage in the dome, they might be in trouble.

Buffalo Bills (+1000) – Quarterback Josh Allen and the Bills (11-3) have been fantastic all season long, and if Kansas City would happen to lose early in the playoffs, their path would open up faster than a route by Stefon Diggs.  But Tom Brady has won 30 playoff games, Ben Roethlisberger has won 13, Aaron Rodgers has 10 wins, Russell Wilson has 9 wins, and Drew Brees has 8.  Josh Allen has only played in one playoff game.  And he lost.

Baltimore Ravens (+1200) – The Ravens are a great value pick to win it all.  Winners of four-in-a-row, Baltimore is riding a hot quarterback in Lamar Jackson, and only needs a victory over the Bengals in week 17 to secure a playoff spot.  But losses during the season to KC by 14 and Pittsburgh twice will make retribution difficult.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+2000) – How the mighty have fallen.  Once looking at going undefeated, the Steelers have limped into the playoffs with bad losses, COVID-19, and a running game that’s nowhere to be seen.  But a good defense and Ben Roethlisberger makes this a reasonable investment.

Tennessee Titans (+2500) – The Titans (10-5) look to guarantee a playoff spot in week 17 with a win over the flailing Texans.  It’s not a sexy pick, but still, a pretty solid strategy to simply hand the ball off to Derrick Henry 35 times a game and take your chances.

Arizona Cardinals (+8000) – More of a lottery ticket than a Super Bowl pick.  But considering a win against the LA Rams and their backup quarterback gets them in, it’s a nice longshot.

Other Teams –

Indianapolis Colts (+3000) – It’s Phillip Rivers, not Peyton Manning.

Miami Dolphins (+5000) – The Broncos beat Miami 20-13.

LA Rams (+2500) – Quarterback Jared Goff broke the thumb on his throwing hand last Sunday, and sadly, no one could tell the difference.

Cleveland Browns (+5000) – Baker Mayfield would have to play well for consecutive games.

Chicago Bears (+8000), Washington Football Team (+10,000), Dallas Cowboys (+10,000), New York Giants (+20,000) – These four teams have a combined record of 24 wins and 36 losses.


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Alan Tapley is an educator, author, and blogger who has lived just outside of Boulder for the last twenty years.  His published work includes two novels, two children’s books, a series of cartoons in the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, and multiple sports related articles. His love for family and the state of Colorado is only matched by one thing, his passion for sports.  The first baseball game he ever attended was at Wrigley Field, before there were lights.  At the final Bronco game at the old Mile High, he allegedly cut out a piece of his seat in the South stands.  But regardless of being here for the Avalanche’s last Stanley Cup, the Rockies only World Series appearance, and all the Broncos’ Super Bowl Victories, his wife never fails to remind him that he wasn’t at the University of Colorado in 1990, like she was.  The year the Buffs football team won the National Championship